Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...

Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...

Two events are independent if the probability of the first event happening has no impact on the probability of the second event happening. For example, the probability of rolling a 6 on a die will not ...

Two events are independent if the probability of the first event happening has no impact on the probability of the second event happening. For example, the probability of rolling a 6 on a die will not ...

We elaborate on an alternative representation of conditional probability to the usual tree diagram. We term the representation “turtleback diagram” for its resemblance to the pattern on turtle shells.

Probability is a fundamental concept in mathematics and statistics that deals with the likelihood of events occurring. It provides a framework for quantifying uncertainty and making predictions based ...

In decision modeling with influence diagrams, the most challenging task is probability elicitation from domain experts. It is usually very difficult for experts to directly assign precise ...